Federal Election Seat Projections as of September 27, 2015

Another bad week for the NDP and another good week for the Conservatives. What a few short weeks ago was being called an NDP tsunami has turned into a light rain shower with a chance of clearing skies. Support continues to drain from Ontario (not new news), and now, from Quebec. The NDP are even on target to lose some of their Orange Wave seats that they picked up in Quebec in the 2011 election.
Conversely, the stars continue to line up for the Conservative. Consumer confidence in both British Columbia and Ontario is excellent, and the unexcited Conservative base has found issues it can rally around, refugees, niqabs, and taking citizenship away from terrorists. Does that mean, contrary to what James Carvelle coined in the 1990's during the Clinton election campaign, that it's not "all about the economy, stupid?" 
So, what about the Liberals? Trudeau seems to have peeked, and this weeks' debate on foreign policy is not likely to help him, and could do even further damage to the NDP brand.
There were 15 polls reported since last week, and they are:

Weighting the polls to reflect methodology, question asked, and dates poll conducted show us that for the second week in a row, the Conservatives have gained over one point in popularity, the Liberals are flat and the NDP have lost almost 2 points.

If the election was held today, here is what the seat count would look like.

Lastly, if we look at how the parties are trending, here's what we are seeing.

Federal Election Seat Projection as of September 20 2015

It was not a very good week for the NDP. The R word ("refugees"), which everyone thought was a problem for the Conservatives, turns out not to be a problem at all. The NDP seemed to suffer from the Leap Manifesto and the Mansbridge interview, both of which seems to have reminded the electorate that NDP philosophy is a bit too far left for the average voter. Further, with the Liberals committing to a deficit to stimulate the economy, the NDP position of no deficit, seems unlikely, and the release of the numbers to back up the NDP fiscal plan didn't help. Although there are close to 20 seats that can swing either way, based on the last 12 polls, they look to be swinging Prime Minister Harper's way at the moment.
Here are this weeks' polls:

And, if the election were held today, here is how those polls translate into seats in the next parliament.

The Conservative gain appears to be the NDP's loss, with the NDP heady days of August just a memory.
If we look at the trend since the election was called at the beginning of August, here's what party trending looks like:

As of today, it looks like it's going to be all about getting the vote out on election day.

2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of September 14, 2015

Five weeks to go, and things keep tightening up. There have been 11 new polls since last week and no matter how many times I keep looking at the numbers and my algorithm for errors, I keep coming up with the same, new and surprising results.

See for yourself.

First, the latest 11 polls.

Now, my latest seat projection if the election was held today.

I know, I am the only pollster seeing the Liberals in the lead.

Finally, the trend 

If I were Mr. Trudeau, I would say Thank You Ontario.

How the Parties Fared in the First Five Weeks of the 2015 Federal Election

A picture is worth 1000 words, so, what do you see?

2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of September 7, 2015

Welcome to September. August was quite a disastrous month for the Conservatives, and September has started with more of the same. As Rosanna Rosanadana would say, "It's always something". If it isn't Mike Duffy, it's Nigel Wright. If it isn't Nigel Wright, it's Ray Novak. If it isn't Ray Novak, it's the R word. If it isn't the R word, it's the refugee crisis. 

Let's see how the parties have been polling and then, let's zoom in on August.

The charts are saying that the Conservatives are on that slippery slope to a very bad result, the NDP might have peaked and the Liberals are on the rise. These national numbers agree with what I am seeing in Ontario and Quebec. In Ontario, the Liberals look to make an almost clean sweep of the GTA, and look like they can win close to 60 seats (note: in 2011, they won 11 seats!). Meanwhile, in Quebec, the NDP are holding onto their big gains of 2011 while the Liberals are gaining seats at the expense of the Conservatives.

Here are my latest seat projections based on the above 5 new polls as weighted into my least squares analysis tool: