Federal Election Seat Projections as of September 27, 2015

Another bad week for the NDP and another good week for the Conservatives. What a few short weeks ago was being called an NDP tsunami has turned into a light rain shower with a chance of clearing skies. Support continues to drain from Ontario (not new news), and now, from Quebec. The NDP are even on target to lose some of their Orange Wave seats that they picked up in Quebec in the 2011 election.
Conversely, the stars continue to line up for the Conservative. Consumer confidence in both British Columbia and Ontario is excellent, and the unexcited Conservative base has found issues it can rally around, refugees, niqabs, and taking citizenship away from terrorists. Does that mean, contrary to what James Carvelle coined in the 1990's during the Clinton election campaign, that it's not "all about the economy, stupid?" 
So, what about the Liberals? Trudeau seems to have peeked, and this weeks' debate on foreign policy is not likely to help him, and could do even further damage to the NDP brand.
There were 15 polls reported since last week, and they are:

Weighting the polls to reflect methodology, question asked, and dates poll conducted show us that for the second week in a row, the Conservatives have gained over one point in popularity, the Liberals are flat and the NDP have lost almost 2 points.

If the election was held today, here is what the seat count would look like.

Lastly, if we look at how the parties are trending, here's what we are seeing.