2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of September 7, 2015

Welcome to September. August was quite a disastrous month for the Conservatives, and September has started with more of the same. As Rosanna Rosanadana would say, "It's always something". If it isn't Mike Duffy, it's Nigel Wright. If it isn't Nigel Wright, it's Ray Novak. If it isn't Ray Novak, it's the R word. If it isn't the R word, it's the refugee crisis. 

Let's see how the parties have been polling and then, let's zoom in on August.

The charts are saying that the Conservatives are on that slippery slope to a very bad result, the NDP might have peaked and the Liberals are on the rise. These national numbers agree with what I am seeing in Ontario and Quebec. In Ontario, the Liberals look to make an almost clean sweep of the GTA, and look like they can win close to 60 seats (note: in 2011, they won 11 seats!). Meanwhile, in Quebec, the NDP are holding onto their big gains of 2011 while the Liberals are gaining seats at the expense of the Conservatives.

Here are my latest seat projections based on the above 5 new polls as weighted into my least squares analysis tool: