Friday, 2 October 2015

Ridings Up for Grabs If Strategic Anti-Harper Voting Occurs

The media is all abuzz about Trudeau becoming the anti-Harper. With 65% of the electorate saying they don't want Prime Minister Harper returned to office, there could be strategic voting in favour of the candidate whom the electorate sees as having the best chance to replace Harper, the anti-Harper, the Liberals.
I have reviewed every riding and used the following assumptions to determine what affect an anti-Harper vote could have on the election results.
Assumptions:
1. The strategic anti-Harper vote will go to the Liberal Party.
2. Every riding where the NDP are leading, but the Liberals are in second place, and the NDP lead is less then 50% greater than the Liberal choice, I counted as a "Good Chance" riding.
3.  Every riding where the NDP are leading, but the Liberals are in second place, and the NDP lead is greater then 50% greater than the Liberal choice, I counted as a "Slight Chance" riding.
Based on these assumptions, I see 14 ridings where the Liberals have a Chance, and 5 ridings where they have a Slight Chance.
Here is the list:

Starting with my weekly Monday posting, I will add a second column to the Seats Chart which shows Seats based on strategic voting.

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