Monday, 5 October 2015

Federal Elections Seat Projection as of October 4, 2015

On September 14, this pollster wrote that it was becoming a two horse race with the Liberals beginning to pull ahead of the Conservatives. Then, on September 15, a Federal Court of Appeal dismissed the government's appeal over the right to wear a niqab at a citizenship ceremony and everything changed. Since the niqab became an issue on the campaign trail, here is how the Conservatives have trended.

As of today, the Conservatives look to capture anywhere from 115-143 seats, and if this trend continues, they will have the most seats in the 42nd Parliament.
Here are the 13 polls published this week.

There was a late day poll published yesterday that showed the Liberals with the highest voter approval, but that is not included in this blog. It will be included in next week's findings, enabling the gathering of more data to indicate if this is a trend or a one-off.
Based on the above polls, if an election was held today, here is how the seat count would look. I have included an additional column to represent strategic voting occurring that could potentially change the seat count.

Would anyone have predicted these results when the election was called in early August?

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