Final 2015 Federal Election Seat Projection

Tomorrow is election day, and, what an outcome we seem to be headed towards. While many people have complained that the election campaign lasted too long. I disagree. When this election began, the NDP was the party to beat. Now, 10 weeks later, the electorate has had a good look at the party's and they have a different take on who the party to beat is.
A few weeks ago, we were all concerned that a campaign about issues was turning into a campaign about head/face coverings. However, this graph shows that in fact, the Niqab only improved the Conservative seat counts by about a few handfuls. In reality, the tide changed when the Liberals announced that they intended to invest in infrastructure, and to do so, were willing to incur a debt for what they say will be the next three years.
Here's a graphical look at the seat count by date, as per my weighted average aggregate of polls.

And now, my final prediction for the 2015 election... Many a Conservative and NDP MP will be looking for a new way to earn a living come Tuesday.

Please vote. It's a privilege that not everyone in the world has. Let's not take it for granted.
This final vote count is based on the following polls that have been published this week.

What to Expect on Election Night Follow Along Flow Chart

CBC is predicting 135 seats for the Liberals. I've got them even higher (143 seat). However, before I post any predictions today, I'd like to wait until Sunday to see if Dan Gagnier's "inappropriate" behaviour affects them. So, I thought I would provide you with printable 1 page flow chart that will help you to predict how the election is going on Monday night, based on the seat count when each region of the country begins reporting in their votes

Federal Election Seat Projections as of October 9, 2015

It appears that the electorate is behaving much more strategic than anyone would have predicted. The wheels have come off of the NDP cart, and the anti-Harper votes have swung dramatically this week to the Liberal Party. It now appears likely that the Liberal Party will obtain the most seats in the October 19 election. However, not enough seats to form a majority government.
While there is still some excellent seat capture opportunities for both the Liberal and Conservative parties in B.C., and, to a lesser extent, Ontario, there isn't much room to grow for either party. The Liberals best case scenario is around 148 seats, and the Conservatives could capture as many as 143 seats. Now, it all depends on what happens around the Thanksgiving dinner table, and how effective the last week of advertising is.
Let's all give thanks for the good fortune of living in this wonderful country.
Here's is how the Liberals are trending..

Here are the poll results since my last posting.

And, who would have guessed this possible outcome when the election was called.

Federal Elections Seat Projection as of October 4, 2015

On September 14, this pollster wrote that it was becoming a two horse race with the Liberals beginning to pull ahead of the Conservatives. Then, on September 15, a Federal Court of Appeal dismissed the government's appeal over the right to wear a niqab at a citizenship ceremony and everything changed. Since the niqab became an issue on the campaign trail, here is how the Conservatives have trended.

As of today, the Conservatives look to capture anywhere from 115-143 seats, and if this trend continues, they will have the most seats in the 42nd Parliament.
Here are the 13 polls published this week.

There was a late day poll published yesterday that showed the Liberals with the highest voter approval, but that is not included in this blog. It will be included in next week's findings, enabling the gathering of more data to indicate if this is a trend or a one-off.
Based on the above polls, if an election was held today, here is how the seat count would look. I have included an additional column to represent strategic voting occurring that could potentially change the seat count.

Would anyone have predicted these results when the election was called in early August?

Ridings Up for Grabs If Strategic Anti-Harper Voting Occurs

The media is all abuzz about Trudeau becoming the anti-Harper. With 65% of the electorate saying they don't want Prime Minister Harper returned to office, there could be strategic voting in favour of the candidate whom the electorate sees as having the best chance to replace Harper, the anti-Harper, the Liberals.
I have reviewed every riding and used the following assumptions to determine what affect an anti-Harper vote could have on the election results.
Assumptions:
1. The strategic anti-Harper vote will go to the Liberal Party.
2. Every riding where the NDP are leading, but the Liberals are in second place, and the NDP lead is less then 50% greater than the Liberal choice, I counted as a "Good Chance" riding.
3.  Every riding where the NDP are leading, but the Liberals are in second place, and the NDP lead is greater then 50% greater than the Liberal choice, I counted as a "Slight Chance" riding.
Based on these assumptions, I see 14 ridings where the Liberals have a Chance, and 5 ridings where they have a Slight Chance.
Here is the list:

Starting with my weekly Monday posting, I will add a second column to the Seats Chart which shows Seats based on strategic voting.

Federal Election Seat Projections as of September 27, 2015

Another bad week for the NDP and another good week for the Conservatives. What a few short weeks ago was being called an NDP tsunami has turned into a light rain shower with a chance of clearing skies. Support continues to drain from Ontario (not new news), and now, from Quebec. The NDP are even on target to lose some of their Orange Wave seats that they picked up in Quebec in the 2011 election.
Conversely, the stars continue to line up for the Conservative. Consumer confidence in both British Columbia and Ontario is excellent, and the unexcited Conservative base has found issues it can rally around, refugees, niqabs, and taking citizenship away from terrorists. Does that mean, contrary to what James Carvelle coined in the 1990's during the Clinton election campaign, that it's not "all about the economy, stupid?" 
So, what about the Liberals? Trudeau seems to have peeked, and this weeks' debate on foreign policy is not likely to help him, and could do even further damage to the NDP brand.
There were 15 polls reported since last week, and they are:

Weighting the polls to reflect methodology, question asked, and dates poll conducted show us that for the second week in a row, the Conservatives have gained over one point in popularity, the Liberals are flat and the NDP have lost almost 2 points.

If the election was held today, here is what the seat count would look like.

Lastly, if we look at how the parties are trending, here's what we are seeing.

Federal Election Seat Projection as of September 20 2015

It was not a very good week for the NDP. The R word ("refugees"), which everyone thought was a problem for the Conservatives, turns out not to be a problem at all. The NDP seemed to suffer from the Leap Manifesto and the Mansbridge interview, both of which seems to have reminded the electorate that NDP philosophy is a bit too far left for the average voter. Further, with the Liberals committing to a deficit to stimulate the economy, the NDP position of no deficit, seems unlikely, and the release of the numbers to back up the NDP fiscal plan didn't help. Although there are close to 20 seats that can swing either way, based on the last 12 polls, they look to be swinging Prime Minister Harper's way at the moment.
Here are this weeks' polls:

And, if the election were held today, here is how those polls translate into seats in the next parliament.

The Conservative gain appears to be the NDP's loss, with the NDP heady days of August just a memory.
If we look at the trend since the election was called at the beginning of August, here's what party trending looks like:

As of today, it looks like it's going to be all about getting the vote out on election day.