2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of August 30, 2015

What a difference two more polls make. Two more polls were released this weekend, one by EKOS/iPolitics and the other by Ipsos Reid/Global News. Remember that downward trend we were observing in both the Conservatives and the Liberals, no longer visible. The Conservatives are now flat and the Liberals are on the rise. Further, the NDP are sliding a bit. So, what does it mean, simply that the Conservatives are now giving up seats to the Liberals while the NDP are holding on to their leading seat count.
Let's have a look.
First, poll averages, complements of CBC News

Here are the six polls that I weighted averaged into my predictor...

Based on these six poll averages, when weighted into my spreadsheet, here is what I see as the latest seat count.

2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of August 27, 2015

It's been another wild week for the three parties. The NDP, as the Montreal Gazette, called it, are no longer just a wave, but a tsunami. The Conservatives, until yesterday, when P.M. Harper actually appeared to come to life while attacking the Liberal deficit strategy to kick start the economy, are running a very lackluster campaign. The Liberal are again slipping and need another national debate in which Trudeau shines to get their numbers back up.

Here's the CBC chart of the polls. Notice how the NDP prospects are trending upwards at a 45 degree angle, while the Conservatives and Liberals are on a parallel downward course.

And, here are the 4 latest polls from which I am getting my trending percentage (after weighting) to apply to my spreadsheet.

Based on the above four new polls, and what the seat selection looked like before these polls, here is my latest prediction of seat counts if the election were held today.

2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of August 20, 2015

It's been a tough week for the Conservatives. The Duffy trial appears to be shaking the base, always considered the most loyal of all party constituents. With the base starting to question the Harper government, and the campaign overshadowed by the trial, the last two polls, Abacus Data from August 17, and most recently, Forum Research from August 20, don't look promising for the Conservative Party.
Here's how Forum sees the vote trending:

Here's the last 5 polls not included in our August 14 seat projection:

Based on these five polls, put through my least squares weighted average black box, here's my latest prediction on Party Seat Count:

Isn't that interesting. 

2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of August 14, 2015

There have been 4 new polls since my first prediction for this federal election season, beautifully summarized by Election Almanac as follows:

These polls show the Liberals gaining ground primarily at the expense of the NDP. Plugging these polls into my Black Box Elections: By the Numbers Least Squares Analysis Calculator, here are my most recent seat projections:

Again, I appear to be slightly higher than most pundits in Conservative seat count. In terms of NDP and Liberal seats, the pundits have moved closer to my numbers.

It's a long time until October 19, so, we shall see.

Please join me next week for my weekly seat projection.

Welcome to Federal Election 2015 By the Numbers

On Sunday, August 2, 2015, Prime Minister Stephen Harper officially dissolved the 41st Parliament and so, even though we have know that the next federal election would be October 19, 2015, it's now officially election season.
For the past several years, I have been predicting election results in my personal blog, but for this election, and going forward, I have set up this blog exclusively to predict election results. My last 3 election results have been equal to or better than any of the pollsters, so, I feel confident that my statistical analysis approach, using least squares analysis with weighting factors to account for incumbents, age of poll that is being added into the results, and variations in polling results within an individual pollster.

I know, most of the pollsters have a 127-127 seat dead heat between the Conservatives and the NDP. I just don't see it. I've been over my numbers, my weighting factors, the too close to really call with any accuracy ridings, and, I still don't see it.
Time will tell.