It's been a tough week for the Conservatives. The Duffy trial appears to be shaking the base, always considered the most loyal of all party constituents. With the base starting to question the Harper government, and the campaign overshadowed by the trial, the last two polls, Abacus Data from August 17, and most recently, Forum Research from August 20, don't look promising for the Conservative Party.
Here's how Forum sees the vote trending:
Here's the last 5 polls not included in our August 14 seat projection:
Based on these five polls, put through my least squares weighted average black box, here's my latest prediction on Party Seat Count:
Isn't that interesting.
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