Wednesday, 5 August 2015

Welcome to Federal Election 2015 By the Numbers

On Sunday, August 2, 2015, Prime Minister Stephen Harper officially dissolved the 41st Parliament and so, even though we have know that the next federal election would be October 19, 2015, it's now officially election season.
For the past several years, I have been predicting election results in my personal blog, but for this election, and going forward, I have set up this blog exclusively to predict election results. My last 3 election results have been equal to or better than any of the pollsters, so, I feel confident that my statistical analysis approach, using least squares analysis with weighting factors to account for incumbents, age of poll that is being added into the results, and variations in polling results within an individual pollster.

I know, most of the pollsters have a 127-127 seat dead heat between the Conservatives and the NDP. I just don't see it. I've been over my numbers, my weighting factors, the too close to really call with any accuracy ridings, and, I still don't see it.
Time will tell.

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