Final 2015 Federal Election Seat Projection

Tomorrow is election day, and, what an outcome we seem to be headed towards. While many people have complained that the election campaign lasted too long. I disagree. When this election began, the NDP was the party to beat. Now, 10 weeks later, the electorate has had a good look at the party's and they have a different take on who the party to beat is.
A few weeks ago, we were all concerned that a campaign about issues was turning into a campaign about head/face coverings. However, this graph shows that in fact, the Niqab only improved the Conservative seat counts by about a few handfuls. In reality, the tide changed when the Liberals announced that they intended to invest in infrastructure, and to do so, were willing to incur a debt for what they say will be the next three years.
Here's a graphical look at the seat count by date, as per my weighted average aggregate of polls.

And now, my final prediction for the 2015 election... Many a Conservative and NDP MP will be looking for a new way to earn a living come Tuesday.

Please vote. It's a privilege that not everyone in the world has. Let's not take it for granted.
This final vote count is based on the following polls that have been published this week.

What to Expect on Election Night Follow Along Flow Chart

CBC is predicting 135 seats for the Liberals. I've got them even higher (143 seat). However, before I post any predictions today, I'd like to wait until Sunday to see if Dan Gagnier's "inappropriate" behaviour affects them. So, I thought I would provide you with printable 1 page flow chart that will help you to predict how the election is going on Monday night, based on the seat count when each region of the country begins reporting in their votes

Federal Election Seat Projections as of October 9, 2015

It appears that the electorate is behaving much more strategic than anyone would have predicted. The wheels have come off of the NDP cart, and the anti-Harper votes have swung dramatically this week to the Liberal Party. It now appears likely that the Liberal Party will obtain the most seats in the October 19 election. However, not enough seats to form a majority government.
While there is still some excellent seat capture opportunities for both the Liberal and Conservative parties in B.C., and, to a lesser extent, Ontario, there isn't much room to grow for either party. The Liberals best case scenario is around 148 seats, and the Conservatives could capture as many as 143 seats. Now, it all depends on what happens around the Thanksgiving dinner table, and how effective the last week of advertising is.
Let's all give thanks for the good fortune of living in this wonderful country.
Here's is how the Liberals are trending..

Here are the poll results since my last posting.

And, who would have guessed this possible outcome when the election was called.

Federal Elections Seat Projection as of October 4, 2015

On September 14, this pollster wrote that it was becoming a two horse race with the Liberals beginning to pull ahead of the Conservatives. Then, on September 15, a Federal Court of Appeal dismissed the government's appeal over the right to wear a niqab at a citizenship ceremony and everything changed. Since the niqab became an issue on the campaign trail, here is how the Conservatives have trended.

As of today, the Conservatives look to capture anywhere from 115-143 seats, and if this trend continues, they will have the most seats in the 42nd Parliament.
Here are the 13 polls published this week.

There was a late day poll published yesterday that showed the Liberals with the highest voter approval, but that is not included in this blog. It will be included in next week's findings, enabling the gathering of more data to indicate if this is a trend or a one-off.
Based on the above polls, if an election was held today, here is how the seat count would look. I have included an additional column to represent strategic voting occurring that could potentially change the seat count.

Would anyone have predicted these results when the election was called in early August?

Ridings Up for Grabs If Strategic Anti-Harper Voting Occurs

The media is all abuzz about Trudeau becoming the anti-Harper. With 65% of the electorate saying they don't want Prime Minister Harper returned to office, there could be strategic voting in favour of the candidate whom the electorate sees as having the best chance to replace Harper, the anti-Harper, the Liberals.
I have reviewed every riding and used the following assumptions to determine what affect an anti-Harper vote could have on the election results.
Assumptions:
1. The strategic anti-Harper vote will go to the Liberal Party.
2. Every riding where the NDP are leading, but the Liberals are in second place, and the NDP lead is less then 50% greater than the Liberal choice, I counted as a "Good Chance" riding.
3.  Every riding where the NDP are leading, but the Liberals are in second place, and the NDP lead is greater then 50% greater than the Liberal choice, I counted as a "Slight Chance" riding.
Based on these assumptions, I see 14 ridings where the Liberals have a Chance, and 5 ridings where they have a Slight Chance.
Here is the list:

Starting with my weekly Monday posting, I will add a second column to the Seats Chart which shows Seats based on strategic voting.

Federal Election Seat Projections as of September 27, 2015

Another bad week for the NDP and another good week for the Conservatives. What a few short weeks ago was being called an NDP tsunami has turned into a light rain shower with a chance of clearing skies. Support continues to drain from Ontario (not new news), and now, from Quebec. The NDP are even on target to lose some of their Orange Wave seats that they picked up in Quebec in the 2011 election.
Conversely, the stars continue to line up for the Conservative. Consumer confidence in both British Columbia and Ontario is excellent, and the unexcited Conservative base has found issues it can rally around, refugees, niqabs, and taking citizenship away from terrorists. Does that mean, contrary to what James Carvelle coined in the 1990's during the Clinton election campaign, that it's not "all about the economy, stupid?" 
So, what about the Liberals? Trudeau seems to have peeked, and this weeks' debate on foreign policy is not likely to help him, and could do even further damage to the NDP brand.
There were 15 polls reported since last week, and they are:

Weighting the polls to reflect methodology, question asked, and dates poll conducted show us that for the second week in a row, the Conservatives have gained over one point in popularity, the Liberals are flat and the NDP have lost almost 2 points.

If the election was held today, here is what the seat count would look like.

Lastly, if we look at how the parties are trending, here's what we are seeing.

Federal Election Seat Projection as of September 20 2015

It was not a very good week for the NDP. The R word ("refugees"), which everyone thought was a problem for the Conservatives, turns out not to be a problem at all. The NDP seemed to suffer from the Leap Manifesto and the Mansbridge interview, both of which seems to have reminded the electorate that NDP philosophy is a bit too far left for the average voter. Further, with the Liberals committing to a deficit to stimulate the economy, the NDP position of no deficit, seems unlikely, and the release of the numbers to back up the NDP fiscal plan didn't help. Although there are close to 20 seats that can swing either way, based on the last 12 polls, they look to be swinging Prime Minister Harper's way at the moment.
Here are this weeks' polls:

And, if the election were held today, here is how those polls translate into seats in the next parliament.

The Conservative gain appears to be the NDP's loss, with the NDP heady days of August just a memory.
If we look at the trend since the election was called at the beginning of August, here's what party trending looks like:

As of today, it looks like it's going to be all about getting the vote out on election day.

2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of September 14, 2015

Five weeks to go, and things keep tightening up. There have been 11 new polls since last week and no matter how many times I keep looking at the numbers and my algorithm for errors, I keep coming up with the same, new and surprising results.

See for yourself.

First, the latest 11 polls.

Now, my latest seat projection if the election was held today.

I know, I am the only pollster seeing the Liberals in the lead.

Finally, the trend 

If I were Mr. Trudeau, I would say Thank You Ontario.

How the Parties Fared in the First Five Weeks of the 2015 Federal Election

A picture is worth 1000 words, so, what do you see?

2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of September 7, 2015

Welcome to September. August was quite a disastrous month for the Conservatives, and September has started with more of the same. As Rosanna Rosanadana would say, "It's always something". If it isn't Mike Duffy, it's Nigel Wright. If it isn't Nigel Wright, it's Ray Novak. If it isn't Ray Novak, it's the R word. If it isn't the R word, it's the refugee crisis. 

Let's see how the parties have been polling and then, let's zoom in on August.

The charts are saying that the Conservatives are on that slippery slope to a very bad result, the NDP might have peaked and the Liberals are on the rise. These national numbers agree with what I am seeing in Ontario and Quebec. In Ontario, the Liberals look to make an almost clean sweep of the GTA, and look like they can win close to 60 seats (note: in 2011, they won 11 seats!). Meanwhile, in Quebec, the NDP are holding onto their big gains of 2011 while the Liberals are gaining seats at the expense of the Conservatives.

Here are my latest seat projections based on the above 5 new polls as weighted into my least squares analysis tool:

2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of August 30, 2015

What a difference two more polls make. Two more polls were released this weekend, one by EKOS/iPolitics and the other by Ipsos Reid/Global News. Remember that downward trend we were observing in both the Conservatives and the Liberals, no longer visible. The Conservatives are now flat and the Liberals are on the rise. Further, the NDP are sliding a bit. So, what does it mean, simply that the Conservatives are now giving up seats to the Liberals while the NDP are holding on to their leading seat count.
Let's have a look.
First, poll averages, complements of CBC News

Here are the six polls that I weighted averaged into my predictor...

Based on these six poll averages, when weighted into my spreadsheet, here is what I see as the latest seat count.

2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of August 27, 2015

It's been another wild week for the three parties. The NDP, as the Montreal Gazette, called it, are no longer just a wave, but a tsunami. The Conservatives, until yesterday, when P.M. Harper actually appeared to come to life while attacking the Liberal deficit strategy to kick start the economy, are running a very lackluster campaign. The Liberal are again slipping and need another national debate in which Trudeau shines to get their numbers back up.

Here's the CBC chart of the polls. Notice how the NDP prospects are trending upwards at a 45 degree angle, while the Conservatives and Liberals are on a parallel downward course.

And, here are the 4 latest polls from which I am getting my trending percentage (after weighting) to apply to my spreadsheet.

Based on the above four new polls, and what the seat selection looked like before these polls, here is my latest prediction of seat counts if the election were held today.

2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of August 20, 2015

It's been a tough week for the Conservatives. The Duffy trial appears to be shaking the base, always considered the most loyal of all party constituents. With the base starting to question the Harper government, and the campaign overshadowed by the trial, the last two polls, Abacus Data from August 17, and most recently, Forum Research from August 20, don't look promising for the Conservative Party.
Here's how Forum sees the vote trending:

Here's the last 5 polls not included in our August 14 seat projection:

Based on these five polls, put through my least squares weighted average black box, here's my latest prediction on Party Seat Count:

Isn't that interesting. 

2015 Federal Election Seat Projection as of August 14, 2015

There have been 4 new polls since my first prediction for this federal election season, beautifully summarized by Election Almanac as follows:

These polls show the Liberals gaining ground primarily at the expense of the NDP. Plugging these polls into my Black Box Elections: By the Numbers Least Squares Analysis Calculator, here are my most recent seat projections:

Again, I appear to be slightly higher than most pundits in Conservative seat count. In terms of NDP and Liberal seats, the pundits have moved closer to my numbers.

It's a long time until October 19, so, we shall see.

Please join me next week for my weekly seat projection.

Welcome to Federal Election 2015 By the Numbers

On Sunday, August 2, 2015, Prime Minister Stephen Harper officially dissolved the 41st Parliament and so, even though we have know that the next federal election would be October 19, 2015, it's now officially election season.
For the past several years, I have been predicting election results in my personal blog, but for this election, and going forward, I have set up this blog exclusively to predict election results. My last 3 election results have been equal to or better than any of the pollsters, so, I feel confident that my statistical analysis approach, using least squares analysis with weighting factors to account for incumbents, age of poll that is being added into the results, and variations in polling results within an individual pollster.

I know, most of the pollsters have a 127-127 seat dead heat between the Conservatives and the NDP. I just don't see it. I've been over my numbers, my weighting factors, the too close to really call with any accuracy ridings, and, I still don't see it.
Time will tell.